British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will probably win the Dec. 12 election with a small majority but the campaign has so far been uninspiring with a host of unrealistic promises on both sides, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said on Tuesday///CRIMSON TAZVINZWA
This is a complicated election, and the Conservative poll lead obscures a fragile national picture
After a few weeks of stagnant polls, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives had begun to very gently close. But in the middle of last week all hell broke loose when the Brexit Party stood down in more than half the seats in the country, and once the dust had settled, and some candidates had unilaterally pulled their nominations, the Brexit Party was standing in 274 seats. That’s fewer than Nigel Farage originally promised, with the Brexit Party not just avoiding the seats the Tories won in 2017, but also a number in the very Remain-voting Scotland.
Pollsters now have to account for exactly how to measure people’s intention to vote for the Brexit Party, as many won’t have a candidate to back in their constituency. Now the candidate selections are final, pollsters will give respondents the names of actual candidates, rather than just parties, and won’t offer the Brexit party to people who won’t be able to vote for them. The new methods should also help account for any incumbency advantage (though that itself is of questionable value).